Through substantial investments under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC – exceeding $65 billion) and commercial port developments across Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has transformed South Asia from an India-centric region into an arena of great power competition.

Strategic Implications for India’s Security

• 1. Sovereignty Violations: The CPEC transits through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), violating India’s territorial integrity and internationalizing disputed territories through foreign infrastructure projects.
• 2. Dual-Use Maritime Facilities: Developing commercial deep-water ports creates dual-use logistics facilities that can support Chinese naval deployments across the Indian Ocean (often described as the “String of Pearls”):
  • Gwadar (Pakistan): Provides access close to the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Hambantota (Sri Lanka): A 99-year lease agreement following debt distress raised regional security concerns.
  • Kyaukpyu (Myanmar): Opens an alternative energy route into the Bay of Bengal.
• 3. Border Region Infrastructure: High-altitude road and rail construction along northern frontiers enhances Chinese logistics capabilities near disputed border sectors.

Implications for India’s Regional Influence

• Displacement of Economic Primacy: Substantial Chinese infrastructure financing has provided alternatives to India’s traditional development assistance (e.g., China has emerged as a major infrastructure financier in Bangladesh with projects exceeding $10 billion).
• Economic and Debt Vulnerabilities: Large loan volumes for high-cost infrastructure can lead to financial distress, giving external actors leverage over key strategic assets.
• Parallel Regional Platforms: Developing alternatives to traditional regional forums—such as the China-Indian Ocean Region Forum—creates mechanisms that operate outside groupings like BIMSTEC and IORA.
• Strategic Hedging by Smaller Neighbours: Regional states frequently balance relations between New Delhi and Beijing to secure competitive infrastructure bids, loans, and military equipment.

India’s Strategic Counter-Measures and Way Forward

• Accelerate Project Execution: Address administrative bottlenecks in delivering infrastructure abroad by establishing dedicated Project Monitoring Units to speed up the disbursement of India’s $15 billion Lines of Credit (LoC).
• Minilateral Co-Financing: Partner with like-minded democracies to offer transparent development financing alternatives to Chinese commercial loans, collaborating through the Quad Infrastructure Working Group and the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII).
• Regional Digital and Energy Integration: Strengthen regional connectivity through initiatives where India has structural geographic advantages:
  • Expand cross-border digital payments (e.g., UPI integration with Sri Lanka and Nepal).
  • Develop the BBIN cross-border electricity grid to facilitate regional hydropower trade.
• Enhance Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA): Expand maritime intelligence sharing to monitor naval movements across the Indian Ocean through white-shipping pacts, the Colombo Security Conclave, and the Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR).

India’s regional approach focuses not on opposing connectivity, but on providing transparent, demand-driven, and sustainable infrastructure that respects sovereignty and supports regional development.